Find the Dow Jones stocks with consistently high returns:
AAPL, NKE, MCD, TRV and KO

We are using the simulator to statistically evaluate the returns of the Dow Jones stocks and construct the portfolio of stocks featuring returns that are both high and consistent.

We show that statistically, for a 3 years investment, the best Dow Jones stocks are AAPL, NKE, MCD, TRV and KO.

To collect the statistics for a stock, we are simulating the annualized returns (CAGR) across all 3-year periods between 2005 to 2019 (at a one week step).

We are ordering all Dow stocks by the 50th percentile (the median) that indicates the typical returns of the stock.
Please see the results below.

Stock symbol 50th percentile of annualized return 20th percentile of annualized return
UNH 26% -13%
AAPL 23% 17%
HD 23% -4%
NKE 21% 14%
BA 18% -3%
MCD 17% 12%
MSFT 15% 1%
MMM 13% 3%
TRV 13% 5%
DIS 12% 2%
JPM 11% 0%
JNJ 11% 2%
MRK 10% 0%
INTC 10% 0%
KO 9% 6%
CSCO 9% -4%
PFE 9% -5%
UTX 9% 2%
CVX 9% 1%
AXP 8% -6%
VZ 8% 4%
CAT 7% -2%
PG 7% 2%
WMT 7% 1%
IBM 6% -2%
WBA 5% -7%
GS 4% -6%
XOM 3% -1%

The value X of the 20th percentile is to be read as follows: "in 80% of the experiments the CAGR returns are X or higher". Therefore, a high value of the 20th percentile means the returns remain consistent across the majority of market conditions.

Note that some stocks (notably, UNH and HD) are performing superior on-average, but lacking the consistency of returns.

We highlighted the Dow stocks featuring the highest values of 20th percentile. Note that AAPL, NKE, MCD, TRV and KO are the 5 top-performance stocks that also feature consistent returns.

Statistical report for AAPL

Read as follows: 19% return at 30% percentile means that in 70% of the experiments the returns were 19% annually or higher.

Statistical report for NKE

Read as follows: 16% return at 30% percentile means that in 70% of the experiments the returns were 16% annually or higher.